The Serb-dominated Republika Srpska (RS) entity will never secede from Bosnia, retired general and political analyst Blagoje Grahovac told N1's Amir Zukic Wednesday night, adding that such announcements are aimed at deceiving Bosnian Serbs.
“It's a delusion, don't believe in that talk. Republika Srpska will never leave Bosnia. The country needs the rule of law, not secession,” Grahovac said answering the question about Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik's announcements and threats of the RS looking for ways to secede from Bosnia and join Serbia.
“Dodik will soon become a problem for himself. He's already a problem for many people. Serbian citizens are starting to see that – how much more can they take his talk? Dodik's become a problem for the RS and the Serbian people. He's starting to get the message that he's the third wheel everywhere. He won't become an American player because he's been wasted,” the retired general said.
Speaking about the Constitution, which is part of the Dayton Peace Agreement that ended the 1992-1995 war in the country and whose Annex 4 laid ground for strict ethnic geographical and political divisions, the general said none of that would be a problem if the politicians did their job properly.
'If Bosnia hadn't been imprisoned by its politicians, no one would even know the Dayton Agreement existed. It (the Constitution) will become functional once the citizens start changing the politicians every six months. Changing the government - this will become a desirable fad in Bosnia. The Constitution will become operational, but with a delay, because the citizens will soon realize that it's no longer possible to deal with politicians like these," he estimated.
When it comes to Serbia, Grahovac said he expects Aleksandar Vucic to remain President for at least a year-and-a-half.
“I'm cheering for him to remain in office for a year-and-a-half because that's when the new American programme for Serbia and Kosovo will become operational – in March, and in July, I'm sure, he'll get a request to amend the Constitution deleting the preamble that Kosovo is part of Serbia. After that, Serbia will recognise Kosovo. Since he won't have the power to do so, he already limited his mandate to last until end April 2022. Vucic knows exactly how this will play out, and since he won't be able to accept Kosovo's independence, he will ask for a referendum, which will be rejected,” Grahovac told N1.
Speaking about NATO's role in the region, Grahovac said that “Serbia will become part of NATO and soon,” adding that the country's military neutrality is only a screen.
He asked which two-sides does Serbia need to remain neutral between and who will be the guarantor of its neutrality.
“NATO is no longer a military, but a political alliance,” he said adding that it is in Russia's interest for Serbia to become part of the Alliance.
“That's when Russia's relations with NATO and NATO's with Russia will finally relax. Without a new American-Russian-European partnership the planet will be in grave danger and that's becoming ever more apparent,” the general concluded.
In the end, he warned that Vucic will cost Serbia dearly because Serbia's institutions do not exist under his rule.