Epidemiologist: We will overburden our health care system if nothing changes

NEWS 03.04.2020 11:07
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Source: N1

If nothing changes, there will be a drastic increase in COVID-19 cases in Bosnia which would overburden the health care system and citizens must obey the measures introduced to contain the virus while as many tests as possible are conducted, the epidemiologist and dean of the Sarajevo University Medical Faculty, Semra Cavaljuga, told N1 on Friday.

If nothing changes, “I’m afraid there will be 200 or more new patients daily of which a smaller number will be seriously ill and will end up in hospitals and that will result in our medical capacities being overburdened,” Cavaljuga said.

“The increase (in confirmed cases) throughout recent days speaks of the increase in the number of tests conducted,” she said, adding that the rate of infection in Bosnia is currently 0,14 percent per one million citizens.

Croatia and Serbia also have an increase in the rate of confirmed cases but are still doing better as their rate is 0,02 and 0,01 percent respectively, she said.

The epidemiologist pointed out that every country is now hoping not to end up like Italy but she explained that the situation seems to be calming down there.

“Our Italian colleagues predicted that it is a matter of days before the epidemic could be contained within Italy’s provinces, regardless of the number of those who contracted the virus, which is still high but is decreasing,” she said.

The rate in Germany, a country of 85 million people, is 0,09 percent and is also expected to decrease, she added, praising the health care system there. 

“They have an organised system and very few deaths because of that. They have the highest number of hospital beds in intensive care and they are preparing for an epidemic for nearly 15 years already,” she said.

“We must turn to innovative measures and in order to reach the peak (of the epidemic), we must obey the measures and have as many tests conducted as possible,” she stressed, arguing that China did all that was supposed to be done to respond to the crisis and that their measures included authorities providing citizens with everything they need.

“This is an unknown virus with an unknown cause that was never recorded before and it is spread to others before any symptoms occur while being very contagious. The world has not been in such a situation since the Spanish Flu epidemic when new methods of self-isolation had to be invented,” she said.